Ottawa COVID-19 Projections

Last updated on 27 May, 2020, 14:45:31 EST.

La version française de ce contenu sera publiée sous peu.

Current of forecast hospital use for COVID-19 patients in the Ottawa area. Created by the team behind ProjectBigLife.ca at the Ottawa Hospital and the University of Ottawa with input and data from Ottawa Public Health.

NOTE: Observed hospitalization data from Ottawa Public Health is now being used as the Ottawa COVID-19 Database is now released.

Dashboard

Data to May 26, 2020

Current

38 confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Including: 36 acute care patients. 2 ICU patients.

69% physical distance effectiveness (approximate).

Short-range forecast

Fewer patients in the following week, reflecting a current halving time of 17 days (daily growth of -4%).

Long-range forecast

50 to 900 peak patients in The Ottawa Hospital between June 2020 & Aug 2020.

Definitions

Hospital census is the count of patients in all Ottawa hospitals at midnight on the previous day.

Transmission is the risk that a person becomes infected when they come in contact with a person with COVID-19.

Doubling time refers to the time it takes for the number of hospitalized patients to double in number. Conversely, halving time refers to the time it takes for the number of hospitalized patients to halve in number.

Daily growth is the rate of change in the hospitalization from day-to-day.

Physical distancing is a reduction in close contact between people.

Physical distancing effectiveness is the reduction in the transmission of COVID-19 between an infected person and someone who has never had COVID-19, compared to the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020.

Safe socializing is ensuring you don’t become a link in a COVID-19 transmission chain that ends in a person becoming hospitalized or dying.

Safe reopening is lifting lockdown measures while ensuring a low risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and death. Safe reopening includes safe socializing, safe work and safe businesses - reopening while ensure we all ensure transmissions chains do not lead to hospitalization and death.

See More page for more information about the terms used.

Observed hospital census

Hospital census halving time of 17 days translates to current physical distancing effectiveness of approximately 69%.

Note: As per Ottawa Public Health, hospital data reflecting the past 3-5 days should be considered preliminary as data is still being received and entered for this time period.

Observed daily hospital admissions


Peak hospitalization projections for reopening

The hospital census forecast of:

  • 50 patients on June 2020 is based on the previous week’s growth rate of -4%.

  • 900 patient on Aug 2020 is based on a 20% increase in COVID-19 transmission.

  • 5000 patients on June 2020 is based on a return to COVID-19 transmission to the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020.

Hospitalization projections



Ventilator projections



Deaths


Note: The number of deaths in the last 3-5 days may not reflect the actual number of COVID-19 deaths as case investigations are ongoing to determine earliest onset date.