Ottawa COVID-19 Projections

The website is undergoing updates. Plots will resume updating next week. Last updated on 15 November, 2022, 09:56:43.

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This website has forecasts of hospitalization counts from COVID-19 and wastewater recovery of SARS-CoV-2.

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Click here to access the COVID-19 Daily Dashboard created by Ottawa Public Health. The Ottawa Public Health dashboard provides up to date COVID-19 metrics that inform projections presented on this website.

Dashboard

Data to 2022-11-11

Current

Case halving time: 23 days *

Rt: 0.89 *

20 confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Including 17 acute care patients. 3 ICU patients.

* Based on COVID-19 cases among health care worker.

Observed cases & hospital use

Note: New cases are based on approximate date of episode. Case data in the last 7 days should be considered preliminary as as public health investigators determine earliest onset date.


Observed COVID-19 cases in health care workers in Ottawa by episode date

Note: The health care worker cases (per 1000 people) are the number of hospital staff who reported a positive PCR or RAT for selected hospitals and health care organizations. These are people who notified Occupational Health of their positive result. Observed COVID-19 cases are adjusted for under-reporting for staff working from home and not providing direct patient care.


Note: As per Ottawa Public Health, hospital data reflecting the past 3-5 days should be considered preliminary as data is still being received and entered for this time period.



Projection of hospital census in Ottawa

Projection of hospital census in Ottawa are presented below. See Methods for how the projections where created. Short-term projections can trend in different directions when there are changing patterns of community COVID-19 transmission. For example, predicted hospital counts can be underestimated during periods of rapid re-opening.


Projection of COVID-19 positive health care workers in Ottawa


Note: The number of Health Care Workers with COVID-19 is based on the number of hospital staff at reporting hospitals and health care organizations who notified their  occupational health department of a COVID-19 positive PCR or RAT test result. This number is then divided by the number of staff eligible to report to get a count per 1000 people.  Because reporting hospitals and organizations may vary from time to time and these counts are based on self-report and include RAT testing, this measure cannot be directly compared to estimates based on laboratory confirmed cases.  
 
Regarding the interpretation of numbers and figures reported here, they cannot be taken as any reflection of staffing coverage at the hospitals and are in no way reflective of the level of care the hospitals are currently equipped to provide. These numbers do not speak to hospital capacity. Health care workers are a ‘sentinel’ population for community transmission. COVID-19 infection rates in other work or community settings may be higher than in the health care setting. Health care workers tend to be of working age, highly vaccinated and practice rigorous infection control while working. Observed COVID-19 cases are adjusted for under-reporting for staff working from home and not providing direct patient care.


Rt Projection of COVID-19 positive health care workers in Ottawa

Definitions

Hospital count is the count of patients in all Ottawa hospitals at midnight on the previous day. OPH counts and hospital counts reported from other sources may be different because:

  • Hospital counts from other sources may include people who do not reside in Ottawa;
  • Interpretation of clearance may vary between hospitals and OPH;
  • Interpretation of treated for COVID-19 and being treated primarily for COVID-19 may vary slightly; and
  • OPH workload may delay the clearance of hospitalizations in preference to reporting new ones by OPH when volumes are high.

Transmission is the risk that a person becomes infected when they come in contact with a person with COVID-19.

Doubling time refers to the time it takes for the number of hospitalized patients to double in number. Conversely, halving time refers to the time it takes for the number of hospitalized patients to halve in number.

Daily growth is the rate of change in the hospitalization from day-to-day.

Physical distancing is a reduction in close contact between people.

Wise socializing is ensuring you don’t become a link in a COVID-19 transmission chain that ends in a person becoming hospitalized or dying. This involves wearing a mask in indoor spaces, isolating yourself from others when sick, staying 2 meters apart from people outside your household, and exercising proper hand hygiene. Click here for more details on being COVIDWise.

See the More page for more definitions and more information about the terms used.