Changelog

Updates involving only data updates will no longer be documented.

V2.3.0

2020-08-05

  • Projections use OPH hospitalization data from 07/07/2020 onwards.
  • Updates to definitions.

V2.2.0

2020-06-22

  • Homepage and contact page available in French.
  • Physical distancing data removed.

V2.1.4

2020-06-15

  • Increased transmission projections reduced from 20% to 10%.

V2.1.3

2020-06-01

  • Changes to colours of plots and removal of redundant headings.

V2.1.2

2020-05-29

  • Updated figures in more.

V2.1.1

2020-05-25

  • Data is now specific to Ottawa residents currently hospitalized.
  • Added definitions on homepage.
  • Change in terminology from distancing to transmission in projection plots.
  • Update to figures in more.

V2.1.0

2020-05-22

  • Hospitalization data switched from TOH to entire Ottawa region to 2020-05-20
  • Changes to model parameters:
    • ICU_prop set to 0.214
    • vent_prop set to 0.667
    • hosp_LOS set to 11.57
    • mkt_share set to 1
    • region_pop set to 1049486
  • New plots added:
    • Observed daily hospital admissions
    • Observed daily deaths
  • Changes to the colour scheme of plots

V2.0.1

2020-05-11

  • Minor changes to model parameters:
    • sd_percent_change_current changed from 1.1 to 1.
    • sd_percent_change_reduction_20 changed from 0.9 to 0.8.
    • Previously these parameters were modified to correct for hospitalizations of long-term care home patients.
  • Documentation on why ICU and death projections have been removed.

V2.0.0

2020-05-07

  • Replaced Ottawa hospital census data with The Ottawa Hospital (TOH) census data to 2020-05-05.
  • Projections are now done using the Bayseian SEIR extension of the CHIME model.
    • Model uses existing TOH census data to generate simulated projections for hospitalizations and ventilator usage.
    • Model parameters updated and can be viewed here.
  • Projections made based on current effective physical distancing and 20% reduction in physical distancing from current measures with confidence intervals.
  • ICU and death projections removed.

V1.5.2

2020-04-27

  • Changes to model parameters:
    • Initial doubling time set to 4 days.
    • Physical distancing implementation set to 50-70% (Current effective physical distancing set to 58%).
  • Current effective physical distancing value added to projection legends.
  • Note added regarding observed deaths in Ottawa.

V1.5.1

2020-04-23

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-22.
  • Updated parameters based on observed hospitalization at the Ottawa Hospital from April 8 to 18. This time period was chosen because it represented a period of steady state when admissions equaled discharges. Estimates based on the proportion of hospital census in ICU or ventilated.
    • ICU % changed from 0.75 to 0.96 (based on 37% of observed hospitalizations).
    • Ventilated % changed from 0.5 to 0.73 (based on 28% of observed hospitalizations).
    • ICU length of stay changed from 16 to 10 days.

V1.5.0

2020-04-20

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-19.
  • New dashboard providing current hospitalization data updated daily.
  • Minor changes to model parameters:
    • Current effective physical distancing set to 63%. Projections made for 50%, current, and 70% physical distancing.
    • Date of physical distancing implementation set to 2020-04-20.

V1.4.1

2020-04-17

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-16.
  • Minor changes to model parameters:
    • Current # of hospitalized patients changed from 43 to 37.
    • Date of physical distancing implementation set to 2020-04-17.

V1.4.0

2020-04-16

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-15.
  • Changes to model parameters:
    • Doubling time changed from 5 days to 31.98 days based on observed doubling time in the last week.
    • Changed physical distancing % from 50-70 to 0-20. Based on current observed doubling time, effective physical distancing is currently at 50%; and obtaining 60% or 70% physical distancing means an increase in physical distancing by 10% or 20% respectively.
    • Infectious days changed from 10 days to 7 days.
  • Edits to documentation.

V1.3.0

2020-04-15

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-14
  • New figure: Observed census & doubling time
    • Figure displays observed acute-care and ICU census in Ottawa
    • Figure estimates weekly doubling time based on observed data

V1.2.1

2020-04-14 (12:30pm)

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-13
  • No change in model parameters.

V1.2.0

2020-04-14 (9:30am)

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-12
  • Changes to model parameters:
    • Doubling time changed from 4 days to 5 days
    • Date of physical distancing implementation set to 2020-04-12
    • Infectious days changed from 14 days to 10 days
  • Edits to documentation

V1.1.4

2020-04-11

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-10
  • COVID-19 icon added to navbar.
  • No change in model parameters.

V1.1.3

2020-04-10

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-09
  • No change in model parameters.
  • Improvements to figures.

V1.1.2

2020-04-09

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-08
  • Used doubling time of 4 days as opposed to first hospitalization date to generate projections
  • Improvements to documentation, including additional figures

V1.1.1

2020-04-08

  • Improvements to mobile version of website

V1.1.0

2020-04-08

  • Projections added:
    • Peak hospitalizations
  • Updates to documentation

V1.0.0

2020-04-07

  • Website now public
  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-06

V0.3.0

2020-04-06

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-04
  • Projections added:
    • Census and daily acute care hospitalizations
  • Expanded description of documentation

V0.2.0

2020-04-03

  • Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-02.
  • Projections added:
    • Daily admissions.
    • Daily and total deaths in hospital (provisional).
  • Overview updated.
  • Improvements to the labels and figures.

Changes to key parameters:

  • Census (acute and ICU) = 24 patients. Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-03.
  • Hospital bed doubling time = 4 days.
  • Model rojections are based on the CHIME model v1.1.2

V0.1.0

2020-04-01

Initial projections based on Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-03-29.

Key parameters:

  • Census (acute and ICU) = 21 patients
  • Hospital bed doubling time = 4 days
  • Model Projections are based on the CHIME model v1.1.0

Roadmap

The main purpose of this site is to visualize Ottawa-based projections for models performed by other teams.

  • Review and update model parameters based on recent published studies. Priories for review:
    • ventilated patients
    • deaths
  • Add plot for observed hospital census trend, with estimated doubling time.