Changelog

Updates involving only data updates will no longer be documented.

V3.0.0

2020-10-05

• Case data & projections have been added to the website. See model for more details on how projections for cases were created including input parameters.
• Ventilator & peak projections removed from website.
• Death figure removed from website.

V2.3.0

2020-08-05

• Projections use OPH hospitalization data from 07/07/2020 onwards.
• Updates to definitions.

V2.2.0

2020-06-22

• Homepage and contact page available in French.
• Physical distancing data removed.

V2.1.4

2020-06-15

• Increased transmission projections reduced from 20% to 10%.

V2.1.3

2020-06-01

• Changes to colours of plots and removal of redundant headings.

V2.1.2

2020-05-29

• Updated figures in more.

V2.1.1

2020-05-25

• Data is now specific to Ottawa residents currently hospitalized.
• Added definitions on homepage.
• Change in terminology from distancing to transmission in projection plots.
• Update to figures in more.

V2.1.0

2020-05-22

• Hospitalization data switched from TOH to entire Ottawa region to 2020-05-20
• Changes to model parameters:
  • ICU_prop set to 0.214
  • vent_prop set to 0.667
  • hosp_LOS set to 11.57
  • mkt_share set to 1
  • region_pop set to 1049486
• New plots added:
  • Observed daily hospital admissions
  • Observed daily deaths
• Changes to the colour scheme of plots

V2.0.1

2020-05-11

• Minor changes to model parameters:
  • sd_percent_change_current changed from 1.1 to 1.
  • sd_percent_change_reduction_20 changed from 0.9 to 0.8.
  • Previously these parameters were modified to correct for hospitalizations of long-term care home patients.
• Documentation on why ICU and death projections have been removed.

V2.0.0

2020-05-07

• Replaced Ottawa hospital census data with The Ottawa Hospital (TOH) census data to 2020-05-05.
• Projections are now done using the Bayseian SEIR extension of the CHIME model.
  • Model uses existing TOH census data to generate simulated projections for hospitalizations and ventilator usage.
  • Model parameters updated and can be viewed here.
• Projections made based on current effective physical distancing and 20% reduction in physical distancing from current measures with confidence intervals.
• ICU and death projections removed.

V1.5.2

2020-04-27

• Changes to model parameters:
  • Initial doubling time set to 4 days.
  • Physical distancing implementation set to 50-70% (Current effective physical distancing set to 58%).
• Current effective physical distancing value added to projection legends.
• Note added regarding observed deaths in Ottawa.

V1.5.1

2020-04-23

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-22.
• Updated parameters based on observed hospitalization at the Ottawa Hospital from April 8 to 18. This time period was chosen because it represented a period of steady state when admissions equaled discharges. Estimates based on the proportion of hospital census in ICU or ventilated.
  • ICU % changed from 0.75 to 0.96 (based on 37% of observed hospitalizations).
  • Ventilated % changed from 0.5 to 0.73 (based on 28% of observed hospitalizations).
  • ICU length of stay changed from 16 to 10 days.

V1.5.0

2020-04-20

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-19.
• New dashboard providing current hospitalization data updated daily.
• Minor changes to model parameters:
  • Current effective physical distancing set to 63%. Projections made for 50%, current, and 70% physical distancing.
  • Date of physical distancing implementation set to 2020-04-20.

V1.4.1

2020-04-17

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-16.
• Minor changes to model parameters:
  • Current # of hospitalized patients changed from 43 to 37.
  • Date of physical distancing implementation set to 2020-04-17.

V1.4.0

2020-04-16

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-15.
• Changes to model parameters:
  • Doubling time changed from 5 days to 31.98 days based on observed doubling time in the last week.
  • Changed physical distancing % from 50-70 to 0-20. Based on current observed doubling time, effective physical distancing is currently at 50%; and obtaining 60% or 70% physical distancing means an increase in physical distancing by 10% or 20% respectively.
  • Infectious days changed from 10 days to 7 days.
• Edits to documentation.

V1.3.0

2020-04-15

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-14
• New figure: Observed census & doubling time
  • Figure displays observed acute-care and ICU census in Ottawa
  • Figure estimates weekly doubling time based on observed data

V1.2.1

2020-04-14 (12:30pm)

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-13
• No change in model parameters.

V1.2.0

2020-04-14 (9:30am)

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-12
• Changes to model parameters:
  • Doubling time changed from 4 days to 5 days
  • Date of physical distancing implementation set to 2020-04-12
  • Infectious days changed from 14 days to 10 days
• Edits to documentation

V1.1.4

2020-04-11

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-10
• COVID-19 icon added to navbar.
• No change in model parameters.

V1.1.3

2020-04-10

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-09
• No change in model parameters.
• Improvements to figures.

V1.1.2

2020-04-09

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-08
• Used doubling time of 4 days as opposed to first hospitalization date to generate projections
• Improvements to documentation, including additional figures

V1.1.1

2020-04-08

• Improvements to mobile version of website

V1.1.0

2020-04-08

• Projections added:
  • Peak hospitalizations
• Updates to documentation

V1.0.0

2020-04-07

• Website now public
• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-06

V0.3.0

2020-04-06

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-04
• Projections added:
  • Census and daily acute care hospitalizations
• Expanded description of documentation

V0.2.0

2020-04-03

• Updated Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-02.
• Projections added:
  • Daily admissions.
  • Daily and total deaths in hospital (provisional).
• Overview updated.
• Improvements to the labels and figures.

Changes to key parameters:

• Census (acute and ICU) = 24 patients. Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-04-03.
• Hospital bed doubling time = 4 days.
• Model rojections are based on the CHIME model v1.1.2

V0.1.0

2020-04-01

Initial projections based on Ottawa hospital census data to 2020-03-29.

Key parameters:

• Census (acute and ICU) = 21 patients
• Hospital bed doubling time = 4 days
• Model Projections are based on the CHIME model v1.1.0

Roadmap

The main purpose of this site is to visualize Ottawa-based projections for models performed by other teams.

• Review and update model parameters based on recent published studies. Priories for review:
  • ventilated patients
  • deaths
• Add plot for observed hospital census trend, with estimated doubling time.